The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 (2012)
What do we see over the next 30 years? The answer to that question varies by region, reflecting diverse economic and demographic trends as well as the evolution of technology and government policies.
Everywhere, though, we see energy being used more efficiently and energy supplies continuing to diversify as new technologies and sources emerge. Other key findings of this year’s Outlook include:
- Global energy demand will be about 30 percent higher in 2040 compared to 2010, as economic output more than doubles and prosperity expands across a world whose population will grow to nearly 9 billion people. Energy demand growth will slow as economies mature, efficiency gains accelerate and population growth moderates.
- In the countries belonging to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) – including countries in North America and Europe – we see energy use remaining essentially flat, even as these countries achieve economic growth and even higher living standards. In contrast, Non OECD energy demand will grow by close to 60 percent. China’s surge in energy demand will extend over the next two decades then gradually flatten as its economy and population mature. Elsewhere, billions of people will be working to advance their living standards
requiring more energy.