GTFS: Global Trends and Future Scenarios Index

Global Megatrend Update: Intensified global competition for resources

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Authors’ abstract

As they grow, economies tend to use more resources. While the rising living standards that drive these trends are unquestionably welcome, they create obvious risks. The world is a closed material system, implying finite limits on the amounts of resources available. Innovation plays a complex role in shaping the demand for and supply of resources. The impacts of intensifying global competition for resources will therefore depend greatly on whether technological development can be steered towards establishing more resource-efficient ways of meeting society’s needs.

While the rising living standards that drive these trends are unquestionably welcome, they create obvious risks. The world is a closed material system, implying finite limits on the amounts of resources available. Even if they are not scarce in absolute terms, resources may be unevenly distributed globally, making access uncertain and potentially fostering conflict. Such concerns are particularly apparent with respect to a range of resources designated as ‘critical raw materials.’

Innovation plays a complex role in shaping the demand for and supply of resources. Ground-breaking
technologies can create new uses for resources and new ways to locate and exploit deposits, potentially
increasing the burden on the environment. But innovation can also enable societies to reduce their use of finite and polluting resources and shift towards more sustainable alternatives. The impacts of intensifying global competition for resources will therefore depend greatly on whether technological development can be steered towards establishing more resource-efficient ways of meeting society’s needs.