Sky: Meeting the Goals of the Paris Agreement

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Drawing lessons from previous work and additional analyses, Shell Scenarios now presents a possible pathway for decarbonising the global economy with the societal aim of achieving net-zero emissions from energy use by 2070 – a scenario called “Sky.” Sky recognises that a simple extension of current efforts, whether efficiency mandates, modest carbon taxes, or renewable energy supports, is insufficient for the scale of change required. The relevant transformations in the energy and natural systems require concurrent climate policy action and the deployment of disruptive new technologies at mass scale within government policy environments that strongly incentivise investment and innovation. No single factor will suffice to achieve the transition. Instead, Sky relies on a complex combination of mutually reinforcing drivers being rapidly accelerated by society, markets, and governments.

The Paris Agreement has sent a signal around the world; climate change is a serious issue that governments are determined to address. By 2070, there is the potential for a very different energy system to emerge. It can be a system that brings modern energy to all in the world without delivering a climate legacy that society cannot readily adapt to. That is the essence of the Sky scenario.