Improving Governance for the Post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals: Scenario Forecasting the Next 50 Years

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Abstract: Covering three fundamental governance transitions historically characteristic of modern states—the provision of security, the building of capacity, and the deepening of inclusion—we offer a pioneering forecast of the future of domestic governance through the year 2060 for 183 countries utilizing a long-term, dynamic, integrated global futures modeling system. While our Base Case forecast anticipates global gains in security, capacity, and inclusion, extended scenario analysis suggests that timely and effective interventions to strengthen governance and implement pro-poor development policies will result in much greater advances on the Post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals.

Keywords: Conflict, Democratization, Forecasting, Governance, State Capacity, Sustainable
Development Goals