Exploring Tomorrow’s Organized Crime

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Publisher’s abstract

This report outlines key driving factors for the evolution of serious and organised crime in the EU. The document describes these key drivers, their impact on serious and organised crime and the potential impact on individual crime areas and organised crime groups (OCGs). It does not claim to make definitive predictions or provide a complete picture of crime in the future, but rather aims to outline plausible developments and to encourage law enforcement authorities to consider and explore the potential evolution of serious and organised crime.

The report opens with a discussion of Europe’s changing criminal landscape and the key drivers that will impact on serious and organised crime over the next decade. The key driving factors presented in this document were inspired by the Serious and Organised Crime Futures Forum held at Europol in March 2014. The Forum brought together experts from government, the private sector, think tanks and international organisations as well as a large number of law enforcement experts from various Member States and third states associated with Europol. In a two-step process, all participants first identified key driving factors in the environment. Law enforcement professionals then engaged in discussions to outline the potential impact of these factors on serious and organised crime. The report focuses on those key drivers with the most profound impact on serious and organised crime in the future. These fall within two categories, technology and socio-economic developments, and are each dis-cussed by focussing on their general impact and their impact on serious and organised crime specifically.

In addition to exploring potential developments in serious and organised crime, the report also provides a view on the future of law enforcement and how law enforcement authorities across the EU and on a global level may seek to counter and contain organised crime activities over the next decade.

Europol also benefited from the advice of the Academic Advisory Group for the Serious and Organised Crime Threat Assessment (SOCTA), which reviewed the document and provided extensive feedback on the findings of the report.