GTFS: Global Trends and Future Scenarios Index

Research into the Long-Term Physical Implications of Net Overseas Migration: Australia in 2050


This research set out to examine the nature of the relationship between population growth driven by particular long term average levels of net overseas migration (NOM), the implications on Australia’s natural and built physical environment over the next fifty years, and relevant policy considerations. The research was commissioned to complement research on the impact of migration on future economic and labour force growth (‘Demographic and labour supply futures for Australia’, Professor Peter McDonald & Jeromey Temple, Australian Demographic & Social Research Institute, Australian National University,
July 2010).

This research offers the benefit of varied perspectives from a range of disciplines and methodological approaches. One of the approaches was to deploy the Australian Stocks and Flows Framework (ASFF), a physical model of the environment and the economy. The utility of this model is highly contested by experts, and findings resulting from this modelling should be interpreted with caution. Reviews of this modelling are available on the Department of Immigration and Citizenship’s website.