GTFS: Global Trends and Future Scenarios Index

2025 Post-COVID Scenarios: Latin America and the Caribbean

Cover page


With vaccine rollouts underway, the world finally has an opportunity to look beyond COVID19 and to plan meaningfully into the future. Nevertheless, uncertainties abound, and new shocks may continue to arise. As a region, Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is vulnerable to these uncertainties and shocks, due to preexisting weaknesses such as underinvestment in public health and healthcare, inequality, high labor informality, low productivity, and weak democratic governance. Indeed, these structural weaknesses made LAC among the worst coronavirus-affected regions in human and socioeconomic terms. This report provides an outside-the-box framework to help unpack these questions and to challenge static assumptions about today’s rapidly changing world. Building upon a robust scenario-planning exercise involving eighty-plus experts, the report identifies three main drivers of change that will shape the region’s post-COVID-19 future. 

Caribbean, Latin America
Year Published:
Pepe Zhang, Sara Van Velkinburgh, Peter Engelke
Atlantic Council