GTFS: Global Trends and Future Scenarios Index

An Awakened Giant: The Hispanic Electorate Is Likely to Double by 2030


Overview (excerpt)

The record number of Latinos who cast ballots for president this year are the leading edge of an  ascendant ethnic voting bloc that is likely to double in size within a generation, according to a Pew Hispanic Center analysis based on U.S. Census Bureau data, Election Day exit polls and a new nationwide survey of Hispanic immigrants.

The nation’s 53 million Hispanics comprise 17% of the total U.S. population but just 10% of all voters this year, according to the national exit poll. To borrow a boxing metaphor, they still “punch below their weight.”

However, their share of the electorate will rise quickly for several reasons. The most important is that Hispanics are by far the nation’s youngest ethnic group. Their median age is 27 years— and just 18 years among native-born Hispanics—compared with 42 years for that of white nonHispanics. In the coming decades, their share of the age-eligible electorate will rise markedly through generational replacement alone.