GTFS: Global Trends and Future Scenarios Index

Annual Energy Outlook 2015: With Projections to 2040


Projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 2015 (AEO2015) focus on the factors expected to shape U.S. energy markets through 2040. The projections provide a basis for examination and discussion of energy market trends and serve as a starting point for analysis of potential changes in U.S. energy policies, rules, and regulations, as well as the potential role of advanced technologies.

In preparing the Annual Energy Outlook 2015 (AEO2015)—a shorter edition; see “Changes in release cycle for EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook”—the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) evaluated a range of trends and issues that could have major implications for U.S. energy markets. This report presents the AEO2015 Reference case and compares it with five alternative cases (Low and High Oil Price, Low and High Economic Growth, and High Oil and Gas Resource) that were completed as part of AEO2015 (see Appendixes A, B, C, and D).

Because of the uncertainties inherent in any energy market projection, the Reference case results should not be viewed in isolation. Readers are encouraged to review the alternative cases to gain perspective on how variations in key assumptions can lead to different outlooks for energy markets. In addition to the alternative cases prepared for AEO2015, EIA has examined many proposed policies affecting energy markets over the past few years. Reports describing the results of those analyses are available on EIA’s website (