GTFS: Global Trends and Future Scenarios Index

Biodiversity Scenarios: Projections of 21st Century Change in Biodiversity and Associated Ecosystem Services


This 2010 report focuses on estimates of  biodiversity change as projected for the 21st century by models or extrapolations based on experiments and observed trends. This synthesis pays particular attention to the interactions between biodiversity and ecosystem services and to critical “tipping points” that could lead to large, rapid and potentially irreversible changes. To compare the range of projections and identify sources of uncertainty, the report draws comparisons between models, while experiments and observed trends are used to check the plausibility of these projections. A wide range of scientists participated in this project, with the objective to provide decision makers with messages that reflect the consensus of the scientific community and that will aid in the development of policy and management strategies that are ambitious, forward-looking and proactive.