GTFS: Global Trends and Future Scenarios Index

Completing the Fertility Transition


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The United Nations Population Division, with the support of the MacArthur Foundation, convened the Expert Group Meeting on Completing the Fertility Transition, at United Nations Headquarters in New York, from 11-14 March 2002. The purpose of the meeting was to discuss guidelines for fertility change proposed by the Division for use in intermediate-fertility countries, defined as countries with total fertility between 2.1 and 5 children per woman in 1995-2000. The proposed guidelines anticipate that by 2050 fertility in the intermediate-fertility countries will fall below the level required for long-term population replacement. These guidelines represent an important break with traditional demographic views about the future of fertility and with the guidelines used by the Population Division to project the fertility of intermediate-fertility countries in the 2000 Revision of the official United Nations projections.