GTFS: Global Trends and Future Scenarios Index

Demographic and Human Capital Scenarios for the 21st Century

2018 demographic and human capital scenarios for the 21st century cover


This volume presents an update of multidimensional population projections by age, sex and level of educational attainment for 201 countries in the world, as well as by labor force participation for all EU Member States. This provides essential background information for assessing the demography-based pull and push factors in different parts of the world as possible direct or indirect drivers of future migration streams. This multidimensional demographic approach is broader in its scope than the more conventional analysis by age and sex only. It goes back to the original and widely accepted definition of demography as the scientific study of changing population size and structures, where the structures studied include in addition to age and sex also other dimensions such as place of residence, highest educational attainment, labor force participation, place of birth, ethnicity and other individual characteristics that are usually collected in censuses. The multidimensional demographic methods for analyzing population dynamics by these demographic dimensions have been developed in and around IIASA since the 1970s. Hence, the current collaboration between IIASA and JRC brings this multidimensional approach to the benefit of the most comprehensive state-of-the-art analysis of demographic drivers and consequences of migration.

Demographics, Economy
Year Published:
European Commission