GTFS: Global Trends and Future Scenarios Index

Energy Perspectives: Long-term macro and market outlook (2013)


The report sees global primary energy demand growing by 40% by 2040. Growth will mainly come from non-OECD countries, where energy demand will rise by more than 60% by 2040.

Economic growth fuelled by energy availability, globalisation of trade, improved institutional frameworks and democracy is leading to a large number of people in emerging economies gradually and substantially improving their living conditions and becoming part of a global middle class.

“Economic development will continue to drive energy demand, and energy is a prerequisite for economic growth,” says Statoil chief economist Eirik W√¶rness.

Annual global economic growth is projected to average 2.8% over the next three decades. This is in line with the growth of the past 20 years. Emerging economies are expected to continue to lead the way, with non-OECD growing at 4.5% on average per year and OECD at 1.9%. Statoil emphasises the uncertainty connected with any long-term outlook.

Energy, Natural Resources
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