GTFS: Global Trends and Future Scenarios Index

Existencial climate-related security risk: A scenario approach

Existencial climate-related security risk cover


Climate change now represents a near- to mid-term existential threat to human civilization. But this is not inevitable. A new approach to climate-related security risk-management is thus required, giving particular attention to the high-end and difficult-to-quantify “fat-tail” possibilities, in order to avoid such an outcome. This may be most effectively explored by scenario analysis. A 2050 scenario of the high-end risks is outlined in which accelerating climate- change impacts pose large negative consequences to humanity, which might not be undone for centuries.