Foresight 2017

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This year marks 20 years of scenario planning in the Singapore government, beginning with our first set of national scenarios in 1997. Since then, we have created a further five sets of national scenarios and trained thousands of public servants in “the gentle art of reperceiving”, as the father of scenario planning at Shell, Pierre Wack, eloquently described it. I have personally been involved in this journey since the first set of scenarios, and it is an opportune time to reflect on what we have learnt along the way. We have come to recognise that the pace of change is accelerating, and interdependencies grow in complex ways. Disruptive technologies such as artificial intelligence, robotics and additive manufacturing are upending current economic structures, while increasing global connectivity is changing the face and texture of social connections. Cyberspace is rapidly altering the nature of cooperation and conflict. We are also facing political and social upheaval in the global environment—the UK’s vote for Brexit and the US Presidential election are but some examples—the causes and implications of which are as yet unclear. The team at the Centre for Strategic Futures (CSF) has spent some time exploring such connections among these changes over the last two years and their findings are contained in this volume.