GTFS: Global Trends and Future Scenarios Index

Improving Global Health – Patterns of Potential Human Progress


Pardee Center Summary:

This third volume drills down into arguably the most important of all issues for humans: that of health. It recognizes the remarkable epidemiologic and demographic transitions that, while long underway, have gained, lost, and regained momentum in the last 50 years. During that half century to 2010, global life expectancy increased from just over 50 years to approximately 70—yet about 20 countries have a lower life expectancy today than they did two decades ago. This volume explores where the next five decades may take us. We consider changing mortality and morbidity patterns, including the remarkable ongoing reduction of global deaths from communicable diseases, a pattern that hopefully will be consolidated and extended. We consider also the growing burden of noncommunicable diseases and injuries, especially as populations age nearly everywhere. And we examine possible alternative patterns of 15 specific causes of death and disability and their impacts.