GTFS: Global Trends and Future Scenarios Index

Iran 2015


Scenario One: Containment U.S.-Led Coalition Contains Iran (page 6)

By 2012, the United States has organized a regional coalition to contain Iran, modeled to some degree on experience gained dealing with the Soviet Union. Isolation and external pressure towards the emergence of an Iranian “Gorbachev”—someone the West can do business with—is the long-term goal. page 6

Scenario Two: Balance of Power U.S. Drawdown from Iraq Triggers Middle East Balance of Power Dynamic (page 13)

Acknowledging that the Iraq experiment has failed, the U.S. withdraws the majority of its troops and accepts a diminished military and political presence in the region. Regional players are forced to both balance and engage Iran, thereby protecting their sovereignty and limiting the damage from terrorism. page 13

Scenario Three: Engagement U.S. Engages Iran (page 20)

A U.S.-Iran engagement defuses the confrontation over Iran’s nuclear program and its role in Iraq, and acknowledges Iran’s regional interests in exchange for increased stability in Iraq and international cooperation.