Latin America and the Caribbean 2030: Future Scenarios
The report finds that if the region and world move ahead as expected, 57 million more Latin Americans and Caribbean citizens will join the middle class over the fourteen-year period. Annual regional GDP growth will be 2.4 percent, slightly outperforming the US rate of 2.2 percent. But the region will face significant challenges ranging from income inequality to its demography and the impact of climate change.
If approached correctly, global and regional trends—and uncertainties—can be a boon for the region instead of a burden. A region that embraces better governance could see large reductions in homicides and less tax evasion, while greater integration could help the transition to a higher-value-added economy. But fragmentation or an erosion of governance could result in more crime, low productivity, and difficulties in attracting foreign investment.