GTFS: Global Trends and Future Scenarios Index

Natural Resources in 2020, 2030 and 2040: Implications for the United States


This report was prepared by Chatham House under the auspices of the Director, Strategic Futures Group. It was reviewed by the National Intelligence Council and other members of the Intelligence Community (IC), but was not formally coordinated.

Executive Summary (excerpt)

The Bottom Line: At the aggregate level, there are significant scarcity challenges for a number of key natural resources with potential impact on US security. Markets for agricultural commodities will remain tight through to 2020 and probably to 2030, with maize experiencing the largest increase in prices. Significant wheat production occurs in water-stressed and climate vulnerable regions in Asia (China, India, Pakistan, and Australia); markets therefore will remain susceptible to harvest shocks. Markets for oil likely will remain tight to 2020, and natural gas markets in certain regions may have constrained supplies. Commodity price shocks will afflict a wide range of consuming countries with weak governance regimes or high income inequality (Afghanistan, China, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Kenya, Pakistan, Somalia, and Ukraine).

This paper does not represent US Government views.