GTFS: Global Trends and Future Scenarios Index

Overcoming today’s challenges for tomorrow’s security

Report cover


Traditional defence organisations must adapt in order to keep the nations they serve safe. The world now exists at an economic, strategic and technological inflection point. Global economic power is shifting, bringing strategic challenges and changing relationships, while technological breakthroughs, such as artificial intelligence and robotics, are evolving rapidly. By 2030, the global population is set to rise by more than 1bn. People are living longer and having fewer children. Populations are ageing and urbanising. The need to address climate change and resource scarcity is becoming more urgent.

These major global changes, often called ‘megatrends,’ are reshaping society. In particular, they will have a significant impact on the way defence organisations around the world design, develop and build their forces. Making concrete decisions today to mitigate risks in an uncertain tomorrow is more important than ever. The magnitude of these trends and their intersection with one another mark an inflection point for those at the helm of armed forces and defence departments to make significant changes to ensure future capabilities.