GTFS: Global Trends and Future Scenarios Index

Pakistan 2020


Scenario One: Radicalization (page 9)

Perceived military threats, spiraling economic losses, and political infighting ignite populist fervor that leads to the democratic election of a conservative military officer. The new regime aims to strengthen Pakistan, and the wider Muslim world, through a radical Islamic agenda reinforced by Pakistan’s growing nuclear capability.

Scenario Two: Fragmentation (page 24)

Devolution of resources to local and provincial authorities weakens federal control and legitimizes separatist movements, while internal and external defeats reduce loyalty in the army. Patronage networks come to dominate socio-economic relationships, regions operate independently of each other and nuclear material is, at best, insecure.

Scenario Three: Reform (page 40)

A growing, urban middle class unites with expatriate entrepreneurs to spark a centrist political movement for consensus-based economic reforms. The movement forms a political party that prioritizes increased trade with regional partners and co-opts political and military elites by sharing the economic gains