Regional Conflict 2025: Workshop Report

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The views, opinions and/or findings contained in this report are those of the author, and should not be construed as official National Intelligence Council position, policy or decision.

Discussion paper — does not represent the views of the US Government.

Executive Summary

This is a report on a workshop convened by Long Term Strategy Group at the office of CENTRA Technology in Arlington, Virginia, on Monday, 5 May, 2008, at the behest of the National Intelligence Council’s Long-Range Analysis Unit. The purpose of the workshop was to assemble a group of regional subject-matter experts to evaluate several possible scenarios of regional conflict in 2025. The report captures the key dynamics and findings identified in the course of the workshop. The four scenarios, a main scenario and three excursions, were generated through two previous workshops that considered the security environment and the character of conflict in 2025. Through these scenarios workshop participants considered the nature and impact of strategic interactions in the context of WMD and missile proliferation in the region from Egypt, Turkey, and Israel in the west, up to and including Pakistan in the east. Participants were given a brief paper outlining the scenarios and key questions prior to the workshop. Both this read-ahead paper and the workshop agenda can be found in the Appendix of this report.