GTFS: Global Trends and Future Scenarios Index

Strategic Foresight Analysis: 2013 Report


Strategic Foresight is the ability to create and sustain a variety of high quality forward views and to apply the emerging insights in organisationally useful ways; for example, to detect adverse conditions, guide policy, and shape strategy.

The aim of the Strategic Foresight Analysis (SFA) is to identify trends that will shape the future strategic context and derive defence and security implications for the Alliance out to 2030 and beyond.


  • The SFA is the initial phase of the ongoing Long-Term Military Transformation (LTMT) futures work at Allied Command Transformation (ACT) and will serve as the foundation for a follow-on report, the Framework for Future Alliance Operations (FFAO). Together, the SFA and FFAO are designed to improve the Alliance’s longterm perspective of the security environment to support and inform the NATO Defence Planning Process (NDPP), as well as other processes that require an assessment of the future.
  • This first edition of the SFA suggests that the future will be no less complex or uncertain than today. Therefore, the challenge of the SFA is to share of future perspectives, assisting the Alliance to transform coherently in order to prepare for potential future threats, meet diverse challenges and capitalise on emergent opportunities