GTFS: Global Trends and Future Scenarios Index

The Age of Consequences: The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Global Climate Change


In this 2007 publication, the authors discuss the potential future foreign policy and national security implications of climate change. To begin, they assembled a diverse group of climate change experts to consider three future worlds that fall within the range of scientific plausibility. For each of the three plausible climate scenarios, the authors asked a national security expert to consider the projected environmental effects of global warming and map out the possible consequences for peace and stability. A historian of science informed their study by considering experiences of earlier civilizations confronted with disease, flooding, and other natural disasters. The group carefully constructed each climate scenario and thoroughly debated the three corresponding national security futures detailed in the report.