GTFS: Global Trends and Future Scenarios Index

The Dynamics of Global Water Futures Driving Forces 2011-2050


This report presents a summary of an analysis of the evolution of 10 major external forces (‘drivers’) that have direct and indirect consequences for water managers, including: Agriculture; Climate change and variability; Demography, Economy and security; Ethics, society and culture; Governance and institutions; Infrastructure; Politics; Technology; and Water resources. Part One describes the World Water Scenarios Project phases and the approach for the driver’ s analysis. Part Two highlights some of the key aspects of the current situation in each driver’s domain. A list of possible future developments in each of the domains was extracted from research and submitted for discussion and review through expert consultations to validate the degree of importance of the developments with regards to scenarios on water use and availability to 2050 and to gain an informed opinion on the likelihood of such developments occurring up to 2050. The results of these consultations are presented in Part Three. These findings show the possible range of future outcomes and the magnitude of the challenges we are facing in each driver’s domain. The framework illustrating the causal linkages between these driving forces and their impact on human well-being, equity and degree of poverty is illustrated in Part Four.