The Impacts of US Crude Oil Exports on Domestic Crude Production, GDP, Employment, Trade, and Consumer Costs

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Executive Summary

1.1 Background

API asked ICF International (in cooperation with EnSys Energy) to conduct a study of the economic impacts of changing U.S. government policies that prohibit most export of U.S. crude oils. This study provides an analysis of the impacts of a liberalized crude export policy.

The United States government restricted the export of most domestically produced crude oil starting in 1973, a time when U.S. oil production was in decline. In recent years, the oil and gas industry reversed the downward crude oil production trajectory through a technological revolution. Horizontal well drilling and multi-stage hydraulic fracturing are now utilized to access oil and gas resources that
were previously either technically impossible or uneconomic to produce. Between 2009 and
2013, U.S. crude oil production3 has increased by 2.1 million barrels per day (MMBPD) (39
percent) 4 and is projected to increase another 3.2–3.3 MMBPD through 2020, according to
ICF/EnSys estimates. Forecasts of substantial near-term production increases have also been
made by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (1.8 MMBPD increase from 2013 to 2020) and other forecasts cited later in this report.