US shale gas production outlook based on well roll-out rate scenarios

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This study models the uncertainty range in the future gas production output from US shale plays up to 2025. The future spread in gas output in our models follows from variations in the number of wells that will be drilled according to three distinct scenarios. Each scenario assumes a well development plan for the six major shale plays over the studied period and then quantifies the cumulative US production output from the combined shale plays. We compare the bottom-up model results with other model projections for future US shale gas output, including the top-down shale gas production forecasts by the US National Energy Modeling System (NEMS).