USDA Agricultural Projections to 2028

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This report provides long run projections for the agricultural sector to 2028. Major forces and uncertainties affecting future agricultural markets are discussed, such as prospects for long-term global economic growth and population trends. Projections cover production and consumption for agricultural commodities, global agricultural trade and U.S. exports, commodity prices, and aggregate indicators of the sector, such as farm income.

Over the next several years, the agricultural sector will continue to adjust to the ongoing China-U.S. trade dispute (which is assumed to last the duration of the projection period). This results in an expected shift away from soybean production in the U.S. due to lower prices and towards corn and wheat which are expected to generate relatively higher returns. Despite relatively high carryout in many years, strong global demand will support relatively stable total planted acreage for the major U.S. crops despite the shift from soybeans. As markets are developed in other parts of the world, it is expected that the demand for U.S. soybeans will eventually strengthen over time. In the livestock sector, relatively low feed costs are expected to continue to provide economic incentives for expansion.

Developments for global agriculture and U.S. trade reflect income growth in developing countries and a relatively strong U.S. dollar over the coming decade, with steady world economic growth and continued global demand for biofuel feedstocks expected throughout. Those factors combine to support longer run increases in the disappearance, trade, and prices of agricultural products. Global trade competition will continue to be strong and the relatively strong U.S. dollar will continue to dampen growth in U.S. agricultural exports. Nonetheless, the United States remains competitive in global agricultural markets, in part due to efficiencies and quality. Net cash income and net farm income are expected to stabilize over the coming 10 years, recovering from the lower agricultural prices of the recent past.