Vision 2040: Global scenarios for the oil and gas industry

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Author’s Summary:

For Brazilian industry to realize this potential in full, a number of economic, social and geopolitical factors that influence the oil and gas sector globally need to be taken into consideration.

This study seeks to understand how all these (and others) uncertainties may alter the panorama of the industry through 2040. This scenario is divided into four main parts: Trends, Critical Uncertainties, Scenarios, and Our View. Trends suggest expected directions for the industry. Understanding the Critical Uncertainties, factors for which there is a higher degree of unpredictability, is even more essential than the prior chapters, since the scenarios will be constructed based on the extremes of these critical uncertainties. Scenarios describe the plausible narratives for the future in question, as well as the results and implications of the events described. Finally, the traditional scenarios methodology, of a qualitative nature, receives a quantitative treatment that we call Our View, in partnership with Deloitte MarketPoint, to describe a distinct scenario using numeric indicators.