GTFS: Global Trends and Future Scenarios Index

World Oil Outlook 2011


Executive Summary (excerpt)

Price assumption in the Reference Case: $85–95/b for this decade This year’s World Oil Outlook (WOO) sees a revision to last year’s nominal OPEC Reference Basket price assumption in the Reference Case due to: the behaviour of prices since the publication of the WOO 2010; a slight reassessment of how upstream costs might evolve; the impact of dollar exchange rate movements on recent prices and potential future developments; and signals from the futures price. It is important to note, however, that the role of speculation has continued to be a major price driver in 2011, with speculator activity on the Nymex surging to record highs in the first quarter of 2011. As such, the most recent price behaviour should not directly feed into assumptions for prices over the medium- and long-term. The WOO 2011 Reference Case oil price assumption has been increased from last year. It is assumed that, in nominal terms, prices stay in the range of $85–95/b for this decade, compared to $75–85/b in last year’s WOO, reaching $133/b by 2035. Last year, the timeframe was to 2030 and it was assumed that prices rose to $106/b. It should be emphasized, however, that these figures are only an assumption. They do not reflect, in any way, a projection of likely or desirable prices.

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