World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision

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Preface (excerpt)

The 2010 Revision breaks new ground in the production of population projections. It is the first standard Revision to include projections up to 2100 for all countries and areas of the world. Previous Revisions presented country projections only for the period ending in 2050. In order to extend the projection period to 2100, a new method for the projection of fertility had to be developed. The method used in the 2010 Revision is based on the advances made in projecting fertility since the 2000 Revision, advances that have been combined with a probabilistic approach to yield the future paths of fertility used in producing the medium variant of the 2010 Revision. The standard output of the 2010 Revision does not, however, include fully probabilistic projections. The standard output of the 2010 Revision includes only the usual projection variants and scenarios included in other Revisions of World Population Prospects.